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Stock Market Report For Week Ended November 25, 2016

GAINS BRING ABOUT “SUPERFECTA”

Stocks gained for the third week, bringing all of the major indexes to a series of new highs. Several news organizations reported that on Monday stock markets achieved a “superfecta” for the first time in 17 years with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, Nasdaq Composite Index, and small-cap Russell 2000 Index all setting records. Exchanges were closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, and trading ended at 1 p.m. on Friday, but trading volumes were solid early in the week.

ECONOMIC DATA GENERALLY STRONG

Optimism that the U.S. economy is strong enough to withstand a Federal Reserve rate hike and higher borrowing costs drove positive sentiment, according to T. Rowe Price traders. Overall, the week’s economic data were generally favorable. The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment rose more than expected in November, Markit’s flash reading of November manufacturing activity showed an increase, and October durable goods orders recorded a solid gain. Housing market data were more mixed. Sales of existing homes in October reached their highest level since early 2007, but new home sales unexpectedly declined. The recent spike in mortgage rates caused some concern about whether the homebuilding cycle in the U.S. has peaked.

The firm’s traders noted the recent turnaround in corporate earnings also buoyed markets. According to FactSet, corporate earnings for the S&P 500 rose by 3% in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis, reversing a streak of five quarterly losses. At a recent T. Rowe price press briefing in New York, growth manager Larry Puglia said earnings are expected to rebound sharply in 2017, although he cautioned that analysts' estimates are “congenitally and perennially too optimistic.”

BONDS: ACTIVE DEMAND DESPITE HIGHER YIELDS AND HOLIDAY SEASON

On Wednesday, investors took comments from the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting early in the month as an assurance that a rate hike was coming in December. Treasury prices fell in response, and the U.S. dollar rose against a basket of other currencies to its highest level in over a decade, according to Bloomberg.

The investment-grade corporate bond market was surprisingly active during the week as strong demand from Asian investors and the move higher in U.S. equities helped create a supportive environment. A number of issuers sought to bring new deals to market ahead of the holiday, and early estimates showed a very active primary calendar next week.

High yield bonds advanced amid generally favorable sentiment toward risk assets. However, trading volumes were light during the holiday-shortened week, and there was very little movement in credit spreads across most below investment-grade sectors. Actively managed and exchange-traded funds reported moderate outflows.

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