1-5-12 Stocks End The Day With A Gain

Today’s stock market offered similar action to that of yesterday. Stocks began the session weaker and then over the course of the day trended modestly higher. Today’s rough start once again came on concerns over potential European debt problems. However, today’s much-better-than-anticipated jobs report from ADP helped provide lift for equity prices. The NASDAQ Composite Index fared best with a gain of 0.81%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed at 1281.06, up 0.29%, but still remains below its late October closing high of 1285.09. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed virtually unchanged, down about 3 points. The NASDAQ Composite Index now joins both the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials above the 200-day price moving average, albeit just barely.

As one would surmise, it was a mixed day for the blue-chip components. However, the financials were clear standouts. Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) led the DJ-30 with gains of 8.61% and 2.09%, respectively. The SPDR Select Sector Financial ETF (XLF) closed up 1.35%. Other top Dow performers today were Walt Disney (DIS), up 1.67%, American Express (AXP), up 1.16% and Intel Corp. (INTC), up 1.15%. Blue-chip laggards were Boeing Co. (BA), down 1.08%, Chevron Corp. (CVX), down 0.98%, United Technologies (UTX), down 0.96% and Alcoa Inc. (AA), down 0.95%. The U.S. Dollar surged higher today as the Euro dove. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) gained 1.07%, while the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) hit another new low, down 1.17%. Our thirty main Morningstar industry group averages were split down the middle today. The best performing groups were Automotive (MG330), Electronics (MG830), Real Estate (MG440), Computer Software & Services (MG820) and Media (MG720). The worst performers were Metals & Mining (MG130), Transportation (MG770), Telecommunications (MG840), Aerospace (MG610) and Food & Beverage (MG340).

12-27 Stocks Flat On Quiet Trading

Following the long holiday weekend stocks started higher this morning before hitting a speed bump thirty minutes into trading when the Conference Board released its consumer confidence index for December. Although the index climbed to 64.5, its highest level since April, exceeding consensus estimates of 60, the major averages pulled back from their 10 a.m. highs. Following an hour-long price dip, stocks got back on track to the upside for most of the day, but final hour selling pressure turned the major stock indices mixed. As to be expected, trading volume was very light in today’s session.

 The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed at 1,265.43, up just 0.01%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped ever so slightly to close down 2.65 points or 0.02%. The NASDAQ Composite Index continues to test its 50-day price moving average. The index picked up 0.25% today. The Dow Jones Utility Average has hit another new multi-year high.

 Financials were the biggest drag on the Dow Industrials. The SPDR Select Sector Financial ETF (XLF) closed on its session low, down 0.61%. Bank of America (BAC) fell 2.14% and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) was down 1.61%. Other blue-chip losers included General Electric (GE), down 1.21%, Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ), down 0.89% and Alcoa Inc. (AA), down 0.79%.

 Although the stock market had a very good week last week and the Dow Industrial Average now stands at the very top of its recent trading range and just below Friday’s new multi-month high, I believe the market finds itself at a critical juncture. Technically, there are a number of potential obstacles in this area which will serve to test the strength of this rally. What doesn’t kill it may very well make it stronger, but just like an airplane needs forward speed to create and maintain lift, I feel this market needs to keep the upside momentum going here or it will be in imminent danger of falling back.

12-21 Stock Close Off Session Lows

Stocks moved lower during the first half of the day, but then trended modestly higher throughout the afternoon. The S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials managed to post a small gain on the day, but the NASDAQ market being dragged lower by a weak technology sector, closed down about 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average formed a symmetrical “V” pattern with today’s intraday trading, finishing the session almost exactly where it started.

 With the Industrials having been down over 100 points earlier in the session the market showed a decent recovery to erase the losses, but didn’t offer anything impressive in terms of a follow through to yesterday’s big gains. The DJ-30 found support today almost right at the 12,000 level.

 One of the catalysts creating a drag on stocks today, especially technology and the NASDAQ, was Oracle’s (ORCL) negative earnings surprise. The company reported its latest earnings after yesterday’s close and it was the first time in a decade ORCL’s numbers fell short of Wall Street’s forecasts. ORCL gapped sharply lower on this morning’s open and closed down 11.66%.

 The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed at 1,243.72, up 0.19%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained a mere 4 points today or 0.03% to close at 12,107.74. The NASDAQ Composite Index pulled back 1% today and the NASDAQ 100 Index lost 1.44%. Both NASDAQ indices remain below their respective 50-day price moving average.

 A number of today’s leading gainers in the S&P 500 currently display some enticing chart patterns: Cintas Corp. (CTAS), up 9.30%, Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO), up 5.82%, Constellation Brands (STZ), up 4.45%, J.C. Penney Co. (JCP), up 3.50%, Weyerhaeuser Co. (WY), up 3.46%, Amgen Inc. (AMGN), up 3.24% and Nike Inc. Cl. B (NKE), up 2.91%.

 S&P 500 stocks down the most today and looking bearish on the charts are Oracle Corp. (ORCL), down 11.66%, Citrix Systems (CTXS), down 7.76%, F5 Networks (FFIV), down 6.64%, Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), down 6.14%, Teradata Corp. (TDC), down 5.51%, Emerson Electric (EMR), down 5.44%, Salesforce.com (CRM), down 5.07% and Red Hat Inc. (RHT), down 5.02%.

12-14 Stocks end lower on Euro Mess

Stocks extended their slide today closing lower for a third straight session. The primary concern continuing to plague Wall Street is, of course, the European debt crisis and its detrimental impact on the global economy. There is a growing perception among investors that a recession in Europe is unavoidable and this is obviously hurting sentiment. The sinking Euro is a clear signal of the deteriorating confidence in the EU’s ability to right the ship and suggests the situation in the euro zone will likely get worse before it gets better.

 The CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (FXE) closed today at another new 11-month low, while the recent upside breakout in the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) confirms the current strength of the Dollar versus the Euro. Furthermore, I think both of these ETFs suggest the bearish Euro/bullish Dollar scenario will continue.

 The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index moved down through its 50-day price moving average today declining 13.91 or 1.13% to close at 1,211.82. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell a little more than 131 points or 1.10% to close at 11,823.48. The DJ-30 slipped below its 200-day price moving average today and is now testing its 50-day moving average. The NASDAQ Composite Index dropped 1.55% and the Russell 2000 Index closed down 1.34%.

 There were a few relatively big decliners among today’s blue-chips. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) fell 4.37% after having failed on three separate occasions at its 200-day price moving average during the past seven weeks. CAT has now violated its 50-day moving average and is testing last month’s low. Walt Disney (DIS) lost 3.22% today and is fast approaching a test of its 50-day price moving average. Chevron Corp. (CVX) moved down through both its 50-day and 200-day moving average today. CVX closed down 2.98%. Cisco Systems (CSCO) settled right on its 50-day moving average after the stock fell 2.65%. Both Merck & Company (MRK) and General Electric (GE) bucked the trend today logging gains of 1.63% and 1.16%, respectively.

 Energy was one of the worst performing sectors of the day. The SPDR Select Sector Energy ETF (XLE) closed down 2.81% and the HOLDRS Oil Service ETF (OIH) lost 3.66%. Energy (MG120), which declined 2.73% today, was the biggest loser among our thirty main Morningstar industry group averages.

 Gold and silver prices plummeted today as investors seemingly continue to take profits in the areas they have profits to take. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) plunged through its 200-day price moving average for the first time in nearly three years. GLD fell 3.51% today and is now down 8.12% over the past three sessions. The iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) dropped 5.87% today and is approaching a test of the late September low.

12-12 Stocks Down On Euro News

Investor optimism surrounding the European Union deal struck on Friday faded today resulting in selloffs in both the U.S. and European stock markets. Some investors fear last week’s agreement may not be enough to effectively end the European debt crisis. Most believe even though Europe is finally moving in the right direction it will take time to turn things around making it very difficult to avoid a European recession. 

Moody’s Investors Service today said the agreement was “insufficient to reduce the odds of sovereign ratings downgrades in the euro region in the short to midterm.” Fitch Ratings said “the inability by European Union leaders to devise a comprehensive fix to the region’s debt crisis had intensified pressure on debt ratings of euro-area nations.”

 Tech giant Intel Corp. (INTC) also weighed on today’s market. The stock dropped 4% after issuing a sales warning. Intel said its results were being affected by supply shortages in computer hard-disk drives. Flooding in Thailand causing many disk-drive makers to relocate is the culprit behind the supply problems. Almost half of the world’s disk-drives come out of Thailand.

 The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 18.72 or 1.49% to close at 1,236.47. The Index continues to fluctuate between its 20-day and 200-day moving average. My five month downtrend line and the 200-day price moving average remain a ceiling for the S&P 500.

 The Dow Jones Industrial Average trimmed its losses during the final hour to close above the 12,000 level, but was still down about 163 points or 1.34%. The DJ-30 tagged its 200-day price moving average where it found support at today’s session low.

 The NASDAQ Composite Index lost 1.31%. The Russell 2000 Index declined 1.64% and the broad-based DJ Wilshire 5000 Composite Index fell 1.51%. The 50-day price moving average is currently a level of overhead resistance for all three of these indices, as well as for the S&P 500.

 Only two of the thirty blue-chip stocks finished the day in the green. They were McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) and Walt Disney (DIS), which closed up 0.46% and 0.25%, respectively. The biggest Dow losers were Bank of America (BAC), down 4.72%, Intel Corp. (INTC), down 4.04%, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), down 3.44%, Alcoa Inc. (AA), down 3.01% and Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), down 2.84%.

 The U.S. Dollar and the Treasury bond market both rallied today as the Euro fell. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) closed up 1.04% and the Rydex CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (FXE) dropped 1.36%, closing at a new 11-month low. The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) was up 1.11%.

 Gold and silver declined today with the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) falling 2.65% and the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) closing down 2.68%. Steel stocks moved lower today as well. Metals & Mining (MG130) was today’s worst performing industry group average losing 3.53%.

 Other poor performing groups were Banking (MG410), down 2.98%, Energy (MG120), down 2.54%, Electronics (MG830), down 2.51%, Insurance (MG430), down 2.38%, Conglomerates (MG210), down 2.24% and Chemicals (MG110), down 2.20%.

12-9 Stocks Make A Great Advance

Investors appeared somewhat conflicted today in terms of what direction they wanted to take the stock market. Judging by today’s action in equities, it was something of a tug o war between the bullish impact of this morning’s surprisingly strong employment report and investors’ reluctance to make new buying commitments ahead of the weekend. The unemployment rate fell to 8.6% from 9%, marking a new 2 1/2 year low, but in the end it wasn’t enough to extend this week’s rally. 

The market began the day higher, but peaked about one hour into trading. The Dow Industrials were up as much as 126 points early, but over the course of the day gave it all back. By the final bell the major averages were completely flat–virtually unchanged for the day.

 The real story was not what happened today but rather what happened this week. It was the second biggest weekly point gain ever for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which soared nearly 788 points. Yes, stock prices flattened out to finish the week, but perhaps this was merely a function of a market in need of some consolidation. Stocks essentially went nowhere on Thursday and Friday, but they didn’t go down. The market successfully held onto the spectacular gains achieved earlier in the week.

 The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed over 85 points this week or 7.39%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 7.01%, the NASDAQ Composite Index was up 7.59% and the Russell 2000 Index gained an impressive 10.34%. Another major average we don’t often mention is the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which advanced 9.12% this week.

 Needless to say, all thirty components of the Dow Industrials logged a healthy gain for the week. Almost two-thirds of them were up more than 7%. The top performers were Boeing Co. (BA), up 13.57%, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), up 13.52%, Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), up 11.04%, Alcoa Inc. (AA), up 10.73%, Chevron Corp. (CVX), up 10.19% and Home Depot (HD), up 9.51%.

 The best performing Morningstar industry group averages for the week were Banking (MG410), Metals & Mining (MG130), Automotive (MG330), Manufacturing (MG620), Internet (MG850) and Energy (MG120).

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11-17 Stocks Giving Up Their Gain

Stocks and Penny Stocks began the day mostly flat with some minor losses and then turned sharply lower around midday. The major market indices did manage to stabilize during the afternoon hours as they skimmed along the lows maintaining a tight trading range. Prior to the close of trading, stocks were able to climb marginally off their worst levels of the day, but overall there was a sea of red when the final bell sounded. Rising bond yields, aka increased borrowing costs in Europe continue to spook investors on Wall Street. With a number of asset classes, such as stocks, gold and oil all moving lower today it is apparent many investors are selling to raise capital. This is something we saw during the second half of September resulting in some pretty steep drops.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 20.78 points or 1.68%. With today’s close of 1,216.13, the Index has moved back down into the 1,215-1,220 area. As you know from my recent reports, I believe this is an important level for the S&P 500 to hold. More selling pressure here and the S&P 500 could be headed for a test of my next trend line, currently at about 1,125. Of course, much will depend on the flow of news coming out of Europe. (Please see my Worden Note today on SP-500 for an illustration of the trend lines.) The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped almost 135 points or 1.13% to close at 11,770.73. The NASDAQ Composite Index declined nearly 2% and the NASDAQ 100 Index was down 2.25%. The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.52%. Market internals were weak with more than four stocks declining on the NYSE for every stock posting a gain. Considerably more negative was the fact that NYSE down volume overwhelmed up volume by a 13 to 1 margin. Total NYSE volume, while still light, has continued to increase over the past few days. The dollar rally is still intact and Treasury bonds appear poised to move higher. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) was only up 0.14% today, but has gained 4.35% from the late October low. The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) was up 0.80% today and may be setting up to challenge the SEPT/OCT highs. Commodity prices fell today with oil, gold, silver and copper all taking a pretty big hit. Profit taking hit the U.S. Oil Fund L.P. (USO) today, which lost 2.82%. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) was down 2.57%, while the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) plunged 6.64%. The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) dropped 3.81%.

11-11 Stocks Rally Sharply

The stock market opened higher today with most or all of the gains coming during the morning hours. The remainder of the day was spent in a relatively tight trading range as the major averages hovered near their best levels of the session. Yesterday’s bounce in stock prices attracted additional buying today as Italian bond yields pulled back after spiking higher earlier in the week. Also helping out equities today were signs of improvement in consumer confidence after a sentiment gauge exceeded expectations.

We saw strong gains in the major market indices today, which served to push some of them back into the green for the week. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.95% today and 0.85% for the week to close at 1,263.85. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced almost 260 points or 2.19% today and logged a weekly gain of 1.42%. The Dow Industrials are once again back above the 12,000 level. The NASDAQ Composite Index closed up 2.04% today, but was mostly flat for the week, losing 0.28%.

Walt Disney (DIS) led the blue-chips today with a gain of 5.95% and a gain of 5.58% for the week. Other top weekly performers in the DJ-30 were Merck & Co. (MRK), up 5.73%, Cisco Systems (CSCO), up 5.49%, Intel Corp. (INTC), up 4.68% and Home Depot (HD), up 4.59%.

The worst performing stocks for the week among the Standard & Poor’s 500 were Computer Sciences (CSC), down 18.27%, E*TRADE Financial Corp. (ETFC), down 14%, Quanta Services (PWR), down 12.55%, International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), down 10.84%, Federated Investors (FII), down 8.36% and Micron Technology (MU), down 7.81%.

It’s no surprise that all thirty of our main Morningstar industry group averages showed a gain in today’s strong market, but for the week the picture was mixed. The strongest groups this week were Health Services (MG520), up 1.95%, Conglomerates (MG210), up 1.57%, Media (MG720), up 1.43% and Tobacco (MG350), up 1.32%. This week’s worst performing groups were Automotive (MG330), down 2.18%, Banking (MG410), down 1.33%, Consumer Durables (MG310), down 1.22%, Real Estate (MG440), down 1.15%, Leisure (MG710), down 1.08% and Metals & Mining (MG130), down 1.08%.

11-9 Italy Adds To European Market Problems

Following a decent bounce of sixty-two S&P points from the low of November 1, stocks reversed to the downside today suffering their worst one-day plunge since mid-August. It really was a day of indiscriminant selling which began badly and worsened throughout the session. Just when many investors were feeling pretty good about things and the major stock market averages were taking dead aim on last month’s highs, Italy pulled the rug out.

I think a good many minds on Wall Street (Jim Cramer for one) had begun to look at our stock market with a measurable degree of optimism. The logic being that with all of the tremendous uncertainty streaming from Europe our market has shown great resiliency and done a remarkable job moving up from the early October lows. That kind of thinking has not been altogether wrong and the near future may still reward those with sugar plums dancing in their head. However, I do think the market is staring at an important test of support–a level of support which rests at just slightly lower levels from today’s close.

In terms of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, the 1,215-1,220 level is an area I believe the market must hold on any upcoming test from here. The rough equivalent is about 11,640 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This level on the Industrials has been an area of both key resistance and key support, which extends back to early this year.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell almost 47 points today or 3.67% to close at 1,229.10. This marks the second failed attempt to hold above the 200-day price moving average since the average was violated at the beginning of August. The previous failure occurred just over a week ago at the end of October. At least for now, the 200-day price moving average appears to be a level which represents high risk for equities.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 389 points today or 3.20%. The DJ-30 settled today at 11,780.94 or about 140 points above the important level of support I referred to earlier.

The NASDAQ Composite Index declined 3.88% today, while the NYSE Composite Index dropped 4.15%. I believe the NYSE is testing an important level of potential short-term support right here. The relevancy of this support/resistance level extends back a couple of months to early September.

The financial sector was one group very much at the forefront of today’s selloff. This is evident by the performance of the thirty component stocks of the Dow Industrials. The biggest blue-chip losers today were JPMorgan Chase (JPM), down 7.08% and Bank of America (BAC), down 5.67%. Others were Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), down 5.42%, Alcoa Inc. (AA), down 5.38%, DuPont (DD), down 4.46%, Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), down 4.43% and Walt Disney (DIS), down 4.25%.

11-3 European Rate Cut Helps Stocks

The European Central Bank in a surprise move today lowered interest rates. In association with the rate cut, the new ECB president (as of Tuesday) said the 17-nation euro zone faces “slow growth heading toward a mild recession by year end.” While looking past the “R” word, equity investors took news of the rate cut and ran with it. Also raising investor confidence today was news that Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou may be “backing down from a national referendum on the country’s bailout package.”

Our market gapped higher on this morning’s open and after riding out a whipsaw resulting in some brief minus signs trended steadily higher throughout the day. There were a couple of times late in the session where the market flashed signs of a potential downturn, but each intraday dip was met with more buying. We saw an extension of yesterday’s rally, resulting in a two-day gain of about 3.5% in both the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ Composite Index.

The S&P 500 Index closed at 1,261.15, up 23.25 or 1.88%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average regained both the 12,000 level and its 200-day price moving average today, closing at 12,044.47. The Industrials rose over 208 points or 1.76%. The NASDAQ Composite Index also closed back above its 200-day price moving average with a gain of 2.20%. This two-day move has been an impressive bounce-back, but from a technician’s perspective there is one potential caveat which still exists. Until the major market indices surpass their late October highs the potential formation of a head & shoulders top still looms. I’m not predicting anything. I’m just pointing out a possible short-term topping scenario should this move begin to lose traction.

Leading the Dow Industrials higher today were Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), up 3.59%, Kraft Foods (KFT), up 3.29%, Bank of America (BAC), up 2.83%, Walt Disney (DIS), up 2.82%, Boeing Co. (BA), up 2.78% and American Express (AXP), up 2.70%.

Market internals were positive, but nothing to write home about considering the magnitude of today’s move. The number of NYSE advancers led decliners by a margin of 4 to 1. NYSE up volume outpaced down volume by an 11 to 2 margin. Total NYSE volume showed an increase over yesterday, but is down from the volume levels of the Monday-Tuesday selloff.